Forgotten Coast Real Estate Market Report Week of August 31 – September 6, 2026

Seventeen More Closings, and a Pipeline That Went Quiet

Labor Day weekend on this coast has a particular feel to it. One last surge of traffic on 98, coolers coming off boats at the ramp, and everybody knowing that by Tuesday the beach belongs to the people who live here again. School is well underway and the rentals are turning over more slowly. You can just feel the difference in the mornings.

The closing table did not slow down for any of it. 17 homes closed across the Forgotten Coast for a second straight week, holding the pace they set to close out August. What changed is what they cost. Not a single sale crossed $1.6 million, and that has not happened in seven weeks.

Three things happened at once, and only two of them are good news. Closings held at 17. Active inventory dropped to 553 listings from 568, the lowest count I have on the board going back to the third week of July. And the pending pipeline fell from 22 homes under contract to 11, cut exactly in half in seven days and the thinnest it has been in seven weeks.

That last number is the one I would not gloss over. A pipeline empties two ways. Contracts close, which is what 17 closings represents, or contracts fall apart. Both drain the same pond. Either way, the houses that fund the next few weeks of this market have to be written between now and then, because a good many of the ones that were already written just funded.

Price came down with it. The coast averaged $701,568 against $724,453 a week ago, and the spread tells the story better than the average does. The high was $1,590,000, the narrowest top end in seven weeks. The low was $165,000, the cheapest closing anywhere on this coast in that same stretch. Total residential volume came to roughly $11.93 million. Same number of houses, smaller checks, and the business happening squarely in the middle of the market where it needs to happen.

St. George Island

The island had its best week since the first days of August. 4 closings, from $460,000 up to $1,220,750, averaging $935,188. Four sales in a week on St. George is genuine activity, and the spread of them matters as much as the count. That is a buyer at half a million and a buyer at over a million transacting in the same seven days.

Active inventory came down to 107 listings from 114, the lightest the island has carried in seven weeks. Run four sales a week against it and St. George reads 6.2 months of supply, the tightest figure on the coast this week and the island's best since the first week of August. For a market that spent most of the summer sitting north of 13 months, that is a real turn.

Hold it loosely, though. Four sales is a small sample on an island where one closing swings the whole reading, and only 3 homes remain under contract. Cross the bridge on a Tuesday in late September and you will understand why people buy out there anyway. Empty sand in both directions, the lighthouse doing what it always does, and nobody in a hurry.

St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach

The corridor did its usual heavy lifting with 7 closings, from $257,500 to $630,000, averaging $484,643. That is down from last week's 10, but it is still more volume than any other area on the coast, and it happened entirely under $650,000. This stretch of road is where the Forgotten Coast does its everyday business.

Two numbers here go opposite directions. Active listings climbed to 220 from 216, making the corridor the only area on the coast that added inventory this week. And the pending pipeline collapsed to 2 homes under contract from 9. Two pendings against 220 actives works out to well under one percent, the thinnest pipeline relative to inventory of any area we track this week.

On the week's pace the corridor still reads 7.3 months of supply, which is healthy. But sellers between St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach should read those two pendings for exactly what they are. The buyers who were lined up in August just closed. The next group has not gotten in line yet, and the ones who do show up in the next few weeks will have 220 choices. Price accordingly.

Cape San Blas and the South Gulf

4 closings on the Cape, from $700,900 to $1,590,000, averaging $1,041,475. That top sale is the highest price paid anywhere on the coast this week, and it makes four consecutive weeks the Cape has averaged above $1 million. Nowhere else out here holds that line week after week.

The inventory picture improved more than anywhere else. Active listings dropped to 139 from 149, a ten-listing decline that is the largest one-week drop any area posted, and it reverses two straight weeks of climbing. The pending count also recovered to 4 homes under contract from just 1 a week ago.

At four sales a week the Cape reads 8.0 months of supply, a solid improvement on last week's 11.5. Buyers, you still have room to work out there, and the Cape remains the most expensive dirt on this coast. But the room to negotiate that was sitting on the table two weeks ago is narrower than it was. Fewer listings, more contracts, and a seller who now has a comparable sale at $1.59 million to point at.

Port St. Joe

Town had a light week and an interesting one. 2 closings, at $165,000 and $462,500, averaging $313,750. That $165,000 sale is the lowest closing price recorded anywhere on the Forgotten Coast in seven weeks, and around here a number like that usually means a small older house on a good lot in a walkable part of town. Somebody got a foothold in Port St. Joe for less than a lot costs on the Cape.

Two sales against 87 active listings reads 10.0 months of supply, which is the softest number on the coast this week. I will not dress that up. What I will point out is that active inventory in town has now fallen three weeks running, from 94 to 91 to 89 to 87, and that the pending count slid to 2 from 6 because four of those contracts had to go somewhere. Town's supply reading is a small-sample problem, not a demand problem. It fixes itself the week three houses close instead of two.

The Land Market

Every lot that sold on this coast last week sold in one corridor. 4 parcels closed between St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach, from $83,000 to $185,000, averaging $155,750. That is the corridor's best land week in seven weeks. Cape San Blas, Port St. Joe, and St. George Island each recorded zero, and for the Cape that makes two straight weeks without a lot sale.

The supply side finally gave a little. 390 active lots coast-wide, down from 405, matching the lowest count in seven weeks. More encouraging, 12 parcels are now under contract, up from 4 and the strongest land pipeline in seven weeks. Cape San Blas alone carries 144 active lots with 3 under contract, and the corridor has 5 pending against 139 actives.

At four sales a week the land market still reads about 22.5 months of supply, so nobody should mistake this for a hot market. But a pipeline that tripled in a week is the first genuinely constructive thing the land numbers have done in a month. If you are buying a lot out here, you are still negotiating from strength. If you are selling one, that pipeline is the group of buyers you are competing for, and there are twelve of them.

What the Pace Actually Means

Seventeen sales a week projects to about 74 homes a month. Against 553 active listings that reads 7.5 months of supply, a shade tighter than last week's 7.7.

The smoothed number moved further and in the same direction. Average the last three weeks and the coast has been closing about 16 homes a week, putting the three-week supply reading at 7.8 months, down from the 9.2 I published last week and the 10.6 the week before that. Two straight declines, and the weekly figure and the trend line now sit within a third of a month of each other. When those two agree, the reading is worth trusting.

The four areas also bunched back together. St. George Island sits at 6.2 months, the corridor at 7.3, Cape San Blas at 8.0, and Port St. Joe at 10.0. A week ago they were spread from 5.0 to 13.2. That compression is the healthiest structural signal in this week's data, because it means the market is no longer relying on one stretch of road to carry the coast.

So the read splits like this. Sellers, the sales pace is real and inventory is falling, but 11 pending contracts coast-wide is a thin cushion heading into fall. The houses that close in October have to go under contract in the next few weeks, and buyers this time of year are deliberate. Your price has to be right on the first showing. Buyers, you have the calendar on your side. Season traffic is gone, sellers have watched their summer window close, and there are 553 houses and 390 lots out here with only a handful of people currently competing for them.

This weekly report tracks residential and land activity across Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Mexico Beach, St. Joe Beach, and St. George Island, giving buyers and sellers a real-time read on where the Forgotten Coast real estate market stands each week.

What the Fall Looks Like From Here

September out here is the trade we make for July. The crowds are gone by the second week, the water stays warm enough to swim in well into October, and the fishing turns serious. Locals know the drill. Redfish in the grass flats of the bay, cool mornings that actually feel cool, and a stretch of beach at Indian Pass where you can walk a mile and count three people.

The market usually follows the same rhythm. The buyers who show up after Labor Day tend to be the serious ones, because they deliberately waited out the traffic and the summer prices. Eleven homes are under contract heading into that stretch, which is not many, and the sellers who understand what that means will be the ones with a sold sign in October. Picture your own coffee on a porch at Cape San Blas the last week of the month, water flat, nobody around. That is a real outcome for somebody reading this. The only question is who prices like they mean it between now and then.

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If you're thinking about buying or selling this fall and want a straight read on what the data means for your situation, reach out. No pressure, just a real conversation about the market from someone who lives and works here.