Forgotten Coast Real Estate Market Report Week of August 17 – 23, 2026

School Started, and the Big Money Came With It

The buses started running again last week, and you notice it on the beach before you notice it anywhere else. Weekday mornings out at the Cape go back to walkers and a couple of people working the trough with a rod. Traffic on 98 thins out before ten. This is usually the stretch of the calendar where the market gets quiet right along with everything else.

Not this time. 15 homes closed on the Forgotten Coast, four more than each of the two weeks before it, and the dollars moved further than the count did. Residential volume landed at $13.68 million against roughly $8.06 million a week earlier. One island sale carried a good piece of that. The rest came from a coast that went back to work about the same week the kids did.

Two numbers deserve a second look before we get into the areas. Active residential inventory finished at 566, down from 572, and that is the lowest active count I have on the books going back five weeks. At the same time the under-contract pipeline snapped its slide. Homes under contract went 25, then 19, then 14 across three straight weeks of decline, and last week it came back to 21. Fewer houses on the market, more of them spoken for. That combination has not shown up since the first week of August.

The average sale price tells the other half of it. $912,170 across all 15 closings, up from $732,566 the week before and the strongest weekly average since late July. Nothing about that says the whole coast got more expensive in seven days. It says the expensive end of the inventory finally got its turn.

St. George Island

The island only closed 2 homes, and it still ran the week. $2,000,000 and $3,700,000, for an area average of $2,850,000. That top figure is the highest price paid anywhere on this coast last week, and it is the island's biggest ticket since the $4,310,000 sale that closed the week ending August 2.

Two sales do not make a trend, and I am not going to sell you one. What I will say is that the island has now put a closing above $2 million on the board twice inside five weeks, and the top tier of this market has a habit of going quiet for a month at a stretch. Active residential inventory sits at 113 listings with 2 under contract. On the week's pace that reads 13.1 months of supply, which cuts last week's 25.9 in half and still leaves the island the softest of the four residential markets we track.

Cape San Blas and the South Gulf

4 closings on the Cape, from $660,000 up to $2,020,000, averaging $1,156,750. That is a second straight week above $1.1 million out there, and the first time the Cape has stacked two weeks like that all month.

Volume followed price this time, which is the part that had been missing. Four sales beats last week's three and matches the pace the Cape ran in late July. Active listings edged up to 144 from 143, and the pipeline improved to 4 homes under contract from 2, its highest pending count in four weeks. Run the math and the Cape lands at 8.3 months of supply, its tightest reading since the first week of August.

Then there is the dirt. One lot closed on the Cape at $1,510,000, and that is the largest single land sale I have recorded anywhere on this coast in the last five weeks. Somebody bought a piece of ground for more than most people spend on a finished house here. When a lot trades at that number, the buyer is not speculating. They have plans.

St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach

The corridor turned in 5 closings between $275,000 and $589,900, averaging $409,395. That average is the lowest this area has posted in five weeks, and it is good news rather than bad. Not one sale here crossed $600,000. Every house that closed sat in the range where working families and first-time coastal buyers actually shop.

Inventory came down again, to 218 listings from 223. That is four consecutive weekly declines, from 252 at the end of July down to where it stands now, and it is the steadiest directional move on the whole coast right now. 9 homes are under contract, up from 7, and at 10.1 months of supply the corridor is doing the most business by count of anywhere we cover.

Port St. Joe

Town quietly turned in the tightest market on the coast. 4 closings, ranging from $300,000 to $377,000, averaging $327,144. Tight band, no outliers, and every one of them landed in the price range that keeps people living here year round instead of visiting.

Active inventory pulled back to 91 listings from 94, and here is the figure I would circle: 6 homes under contract, up from a single one a week ago. That is the strongest pending count in town in five weeks. On four sales a week, Port St. Joe reads 5.3 months of supply, the tightest number on the coast and the tightest reading town has posted in five weeks. Last week this same market looked like the thinnest pipeline we had. Seven days later it is the healthiest. That is what a small sample does, and it is also why the three-week view further down matters more than any single Tuesday.

The Land Market

6 lots closed coast-wide, up from 5, and the money behind them came to $2.17 million on an average of $360,917. Prices ran from $70,000 on St. George Island all the way to that $1,510,000 Cape parcel. The island moved 2 lots, the corridor moved 2 at $146,000 and $165,000, and town moved 1 at $157,000, its first lot sale in three weeks.

The pipeline is where land gets uncomfortable. Coast-wide, only 2 parcels sit under contract against 401 active listings. That pending count was 8 a week ago and 9 the week before that. Cape San Blas has zero lots under contract against 152 active, its highest inventory in five weeks. The St. Joe Beach corridor has zero under contract against 140. Sales pace puts lot supply near 15.4 months, an improvement on last week's 18.5, but the near-empty pipeline says the next few weeks are likely to run thin. If you are buying a lot on the Forgotten Coast right now, you are still the one setting the terms, and nothing in this week's data changes that.

What the Pace Actually Means

Fifteen sales a week projects to about 65 homes a month. Against 566 active listings that reads 8.7 months of supply, the tightest single-week number in three weeks and a real improvement on the 12.0 we posted twice running.

Now the honest part. Average the last three weeks and the coast has been closing about 12 homes a week, which puts smoothed supply at 10.6 months. That figure was 9.0 in last week's report and 7.6 the week before. It has widened three weeks in a row. The reason is arithmetic rather than weakness: the 22-sale week from the end of July rolled out of the three-week window, and even a strong 15 could not replace it. Both readings are true. The week got better and the trend has not caught up yet.

The order of the four markets shuffled harder than usual. A week ago Cape San Blas, Port St. Joe, and the corridor were bunched between 10.3 and 11.0 months, close enough to call a three-way tie. Now town sits at 5.3, the Cape at 8.3, and the corridor at 10.1, which is roughly where it has been all month. St. George Island improved a great deal on paper and still reads 13.1, more than double town.

So the read depends on which side of the table you are sitting on. Sellers, the pipeline rebuilt itself last week and inventory came down, which is the first genuinely favorable pairing since early August. That window narrows once the calendar turns past the middle of September, so a house priced against this year's comps is the one that closes before Thanksgiving. Buyers, you still have leverage across most of this coast, and the most of it on the island and on nearly any vacant lot you care to walk.

This weekly report tracks residential and land activity across Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Mexico Beach, St. Joe Beach, and St. George Island, giving buyers and sellers a real-time read on where the Forgotten Coast real estate market stands each week.

The Turn Toward Fall

Late August has its own feel out here. The Gulf goes glassy first thing in the morning before the afternoon builds something up over the bay, the boat ramp finally has a parking space in it, and the people on the sand at seven are the ones who live here. Buses on 98 by seven-fifteen. Empty beach by nine.

What comes next is the best stretch of the year on this coast, and it is also the one that separates serious sellers from hopeful ones. September and October bring the fishermen, the second-home shoppers who waited out the summer crowds, and the buyers who have been watching this market since spring and finally have a reason to move on it. 21 homes are already under contract heading into that window. Whether that number keeps climbing comes down almost entirely to what the rest of the inventory decides to do about price.

Key Metrics Summary

Area Detail

Vacant Land Detail

If you're thinking about buying or selling this fall and want a straight read on what the data means for your situation, reach out. No pressure, just a real conversation about the market from someone who lives and works here.