Is Now a Good Time to Buy on Florida's Forgotten Coast? | Port Realty Group

Is now a good time to buy on Florida's Forgotten Coast?

By Billy Joe Smiley | June 11, 2026

I get this question almost every week right now, usually from someone who has been watching listings for a few months and senses the market has shifted. They're right. After years of bidding wars and waived inspections, the leverage on this coast has moved back toward buyers. The question is no longer whether you can find a home. It's how you write an offer that wins on terms a seller will actually accept.

Here's what I'm seeing on the ground, and how I'd coach you through an offer if we were sitting down together.

Why mid-2026 favors buyers here

Inventory on Cape San Blas has climbed for several consecutive weeks and keeps hitting new highs for the year as more listings come online. When supply builds like that, two things follow: homes sit longer, and sellers get realistic. We're now seeing price reductions and longer days on market across Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, and the peninsula. Sellers are more flexible than I've seen them since the pre-pandemic years.

A few numbers frame it:

• Florida's single-family inventory is running around five to five and a half months of supply statewide, which is close to a balanced market and a world away from the one-month supply of a few years ago.
• The statewide sale-to-list ratio sits near 95 to 96 percent, meaning the typical home is closing a few points under its asking price.
• Thirty-year fixed rates are hovering around 6.4 percent, off their peak, with showing activity picking up as a result.

None of that means you overpay because the market softened. It means you have room to negotiate, and you should use it. Buyers who stay patient, run their homework, and write a clean offer are finding real value right now. The ones who get emotional and chase a listing still lose money.

How much should you offer, and when to push

There's no single rule, and anyone who gives you a flat "always offer 10 percent under" is guessing. What I look at first is how long the home has been on the market and how the price tracks against recent comparable sales. Days on market tells you how much pressure the seller is feeling. Here's the framework I use as a starting point, before we factor in the specific property:

Treat those as conversation starters, not gospel. A Gulf-front home in a tight pocket of St. George Island with no real competition behaves differently than a bayfront home on a street with four other active listings. The comps and the competition set the real number. This is the same homework I walk through in my guide on how to buy on St. George Island without regrets, and it matters more in a softening market, not less.

Negotiate the terms, not just the price

Price is the headline, but the terms often save you more. In a buyer's market, sellers will move on things they wouldn't have considered two years ago: closing cost credits, repairs, extended timelines, and rate buydowns. A seller concession is money the seller agrees to put toward your closing costs or a buydown, and it can be worth more to you than a straight price cut.

Here's the math that surprises people. Take $10,000 and look at what it does two different ways:

If you plan to keep the home long term, the price cut lowers your basis and your payment forever. If you want breathing room in the early years, or you expect to refinance if rates ease, the buydown puts more cash back in your pocket up front. There's no universal winner. It depends on your plan for the property. Conventional loans allow seller concessions of roughly 3 to 9 percent of the price depending on your down payment, so there's usually more room here than buyers assume.

Keep your contingencies. When the market was frantic, buyers waived inspections and appraisal protections to win. You don't need to do that now, and on this coast you really shouldn't. A standard Florida contract gives you several protections worth holding onto:

• Inspection, or due diligence, period: usually 7 to 15 days, with 10 being common. Within that window you can request repairs or credits, renegotiate, or walk away without losing your deposit.
• Financing and appraisal contingencies: your outs if the loan or the appraised value doesn't come together.
• Title review: your title company or closing attorney confirms clean title before you're committed.

Use your due diligence window to price the real cost of ownership

The offer gets you under contract. The due diligence period is where you protect yourself, and on the Forgotten Coast that means more than a home inspection. This is the window to lock down the numbers that actually determine whether a property pencils out:

• Get firm insurance quotes during this window, not after. Wind, flood, and homeowners are three separate policies on a beach home, and the total can run into the thousands. Pull a real quote on the specific address before your inspection period ends so there are no surprises.
• Confirm the flood zone and pull the elevation certificate. A home in an X zone may carry no mandatory flood insurance, while a VE zone carries the strictest requirements and the highest premiums. If you're unsure how the zones differ, my primer on Florida flood zones breaks it down.
• Check whether the property sits in a CBRA zone. On parts of Cape San Blas and Indian Pass, federal flood insurance through the NFIP isn't available, and you'll need a private policy. Knowing this before your window closes changes your math and sometimes your offer.
• Review the survey and any HOA or local project notes. The St. Joseph Peninsula coastal structures and beach nourishment project is active through this summer, and it's the kind of local detail worth understanding before you commit.

This is exactly the groundwork I cover when buyers ask what to know about buying waterfront property on Cape San Blas. Every parcel on this coast has its own story on flood zone, elevation, and insurance, and the only way to know yours is to run it before your contingency period runs out.

A note on financing a second or vacation home

Most buyers in our market are purchasing a second home or a vacation property rather than a primary residence, and the loan rules are a little different. Plan on at least 10 percent down on a second home, and expect the rate to run a touch higher than a primary residence loan, often in the high 6s to mid 7s depending on your credit and the property. In most of Florida the 2026 conforming loan limit is $832,750, so financing above that moves you into jumbo territory with its own underwriting. None of this should scare you off. It just means getting fully pre-approved before you write, so your offer carries weight when a seller is comparing it to others. A clean, pre-approved offer with reasonable terms beats a higher number that looks shaky, especially in a market where sellers value certainty.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much below asking should I offer on the Forgotten Coast right now?

It depends on days on market and the comps. A fresh, well-priced listing might warrant an offer within a few points of asking, while a home that's sat 30 to 60 days with a price cut can often take an opening offer 3 to 7 percent below its current price. Homes needing work justify deeper discounts backed by contractor estimates. The right number comes from the specific property, not a blanket percentage.

Should I ask for a price cut or a rate buydown?

If you plan to own the home for many years, a price reduction lowers your payment and your basis permanently. If you want lower payments in the early years or expect to refinance, a seller-paid rate buydown can save you noticeably more up front. The same dollar amount works harder as a buydown in the short term and as a price cut over the long haul.

Do I still need an inspection contingency in a buyer's market?

Absolutely, and more so on a coastal home. Your Florida inspection or due diligence period, commonly around 10 days, lets you verify condition, lock in insurance quotes, confirm the flood zone, and request repairs or credits. Waiving it to win an offer made sense when buyers were competing. It rarely makes sense now.

How long does it take to close once my offer is accepted?

A financed purchase in Florida usually closes in 30 to 45 days, allowing time for inspection, appraisal, and underwriting. A clean cash purchase can close in 10 to 21 days. Federal rules require your lender to deliver the Closing Disclosure at least three business days before closing, so build that into your timeline.

Is it better to buy now or wait for prices to fall further?

No one can promise where prices go next, and trying to time the exact bottom usually costs more than it saves. What's true today is that inventory is up, sellers are negotiating, and rates have eased off their highs, which together give you leverage you didn't have a couple of years ago. The right answer depends on your timeline, your financing, and the specific home.

Where this leaves you

The market has handed buyers real leverage on the Forgotten Coast for the first time in years. The buyers who win right now aren't the ones paying the most. They're the ones who read the listing's position, structure the offer around price and terms, and use their due diligence window to price the true cost of owning on this coast. From St. Joe Beach to the peninsula, that playbook works.

If you're weighing a specific property, give me a call or shoot me a text. I'll pull the comps with you, look at how long it's been sitting, and help you build an offer that makes sense on price, terms, and the real ownership costs. After 27 years on this coast, that's the part I enjoy most, and it's the part that saves my buyers the most money.

About Billy Joe Smiley

Billy Joe Smiley is one of Florida's most accomplished real estate professionals, with over 27 years of experience and more than 1,000 properties sold. As a top 1% REALTOR® based at Port Realty Group, Billy Joe serves the Forgotten Coast with unmatched insight, professionalism, and care. He works with buyers and sellers across Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Mexico Beach, and St. George Island, specializing in luxury and waterfront homes, investment properties and 1031 exchanges, beachfront and bayfront land, vacation homes and income-producing real estate, and real estate development and architectural planning. A Gulf County native, Billy Joe pairs deep local knowledge with decades of experience in brokerage, land development, custom home building, and architectural consulting. Recognized as The Forgotten Coast's Most Trusted Realtor, Billy Joe has earned 90+ public reviews across Zillow, Google, and Realtor.com.

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