Forgotten Coast Real Estate Market Report
March 16–22, 2026
March is doing what March always does down here, teasing spring without fully committing to it. The light changes first. That particular gold that settles over the Gulf in the late afternoon starts arriving a little earlier, and you can feel something shift in the air. People are driving slower on Cape San Blas Road. A few more trucks are parked at the boat ramp. And if you've been watching the market the way we have, you can feel a similar kind of energy starting to stir there too.
The week of March 16–22 brought 11 residential closings across the Forgotten Coast, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, St. Joe Beach, Mexico Beach, and St. George Island, along with a solid 8 land transactions, most of them concentrated on Cape San Blas and St. George Island. That's a coast moving at a deliberate pace, which isn't the same thing as a slow one.
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What the Numbers Are Actually Saying
At 12.2 months of inventory, this market belongs to buyers, on paper. But that number deserves some unpacking, because it's averaging together areas that are behaving quite differently from each other. Port St. Joe is moving faster than anywhere else on the coast right now, with 3 closings against 97 active listings. That's a turnover ratio that tells you motivated buyers are finding deals. St. George Island closed 3 homes at prices that would make you pull over and check the listing twice, averaging just north of $1.17 million. That market isn't slow. It's selective.
The St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach corridor posted the same sold count (3,) but carries the heaviest active inventory at 234 listings. That's where buyers have the most room to negotiate. It's also where price discipline from sellers matters most right now. If you're a seller in that stretch, pricing right isn't a suggestion. If you're a buyer, the selection is deep and the leverage is real.
Residential closings by area, March 16–22, 2026. Port St. Joe, St. Joe Beach/Mexico Beach, and St. George Island each closed 3 homes.
Area by Area
Port St. Joe — The Coast's Workhorse
Three closings in a week, with a price range running from $252,500 up to $750,000 and an average of $443,767. That spread tells a story about a town where a first-time buyer and a move-up buyer can both find something that makes sense. Port St. Joe is the most balanced market on the coast right now with 97 active listings, genuine buyer leverage, and a pace that suggests steady demand rather than speculative churn. It's the kind of market where an informed offer gets a real conversation. The turnover ratio here outpaces every other area this week.
Cape San Blas / South Gulf — Luxury Pace, Patient Inventory
Two closings, averaging $923,750 is a meaningful week in any market. The price range, $647,500 to $1.2 million, tells you exactly what's trading here: quality Gulf-front and Gulf-access properties with buyers who've done their homework. With 126 actives and 2 moving per week, the math projects about 8.7 homes per month. That puts months of inventory north of 14 for this submarket. Sellers need patience. Buyers can afford to be deliberate. If you're looking at Cape San Blas, that's not a warning, it's just the reality of a high-value, low-volume market where the right property still commands the right price.
St. Joe Beach / Mexico Beach — Most Inventory, Most Room
The corridor from St. Joe Beach through Mexico Beach continues to hold the coast's deepest bench of available inventory. 234 active residential listings against 3 closings this week. Average sold price of $428,300, with a tight spread of $400,000 to $469,900 that suggests the closings happening here are in a pretty well-defined price band. Buyers in this area have genuine selection and real negotiating room. Sellers who price with current market data and condition their homes appropriately are the ones getting to the closing table.
Mexico Beach continues to rebuild its identity post-hurricane, and the market there reflects a community coming into its own again. There's value here if you know where to look.
St. George Island — The High-Water Mark
Three closings with an average of $1,171,667. The low end was $890,000. That's St. George Island doing what it does, holding its value against the backdrop of a barrier island that genuinely has no substitutes. Picture yourself on a porch there on a Tuesday morning in March with a cup of coffee and nothing but Apalachicola Bay on one side and the Gulf on the other. The market reflects that. Buyers competing for St. George properties know they're not buying a house. They're buying a place that doesn't exist anywhere else.
With 125 active listings and a weekly pace suggesting roughly 13 closings per month, inventory sits around 9.6 months, tighter than the coast-wide average. That's notable for a premium market.
The Land Market — Where the Action Is
Eight land closings in a single week is a strong showing, and the story is split cleanly between two areas. Cape San Blas dominated with 5 vacant land transactions with prices ranging from $78,000 to $580,000 and averaging $264,400. That range tells you both raw land and premium Gulf-access lots are moving. Somebody built something significant last week. Or is about to.
St. George Island added 3 land closings at an average of $258,063, ranging from $148,500 to $455,688. Two other submarkets, Port St. Joe and St. Joe Beach/Mexico Beach both closed zero land deals this week despite holding 39 and 129 active land listings respectively. Port St. Joe had 1 land parcel go under contract, so something is in motion. The St. Joe Beach/Mexico Beach land inventory at 129 listings with 3 under contract is a patient game right now, but it won't stay that way indefinitely.
This weekly market report covers residential and vacant land activity across the Forgotten Coast of Northwest Florida including Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, St. Joe Beach, Mexico Beach, and St. George Island. It is published weekly by BJ Smiley of Port Realty Group and draws from live MLS data to track active listings, recent sales, pricing trends, and market pace across all submarkets.
Full Data Summary
Residential
| Area | Active | Under Contract | Sold | Price Low | Price High | Avg Sold Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape San Blas / South Gulf | 126 | 2 | 2 | $647,500 | $1,200,000 | $923,750 |
| Port St. Joe | 97 | 2 | 3 | $252,500 | $750,000 | $443,767 |
| St. Joe Beach / Mexico Beach | 234 | 3 | 3 | $400,000 | $469,900 | $428,300 |
| St. George Island | 125 | 2 | 3 | $890,000 | $1,575,000 | $1,171,667 |
| TOTAL | 582 | 9 | 11 | — | — | — |
Vacant Land
| Area | Active | Under Contract | Sold | Price Low | Price High | Avg Sold Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape San Blas / South Gulf | 136 | 0 | 5 | $78,000 | $580,000 | $264,400 |
| Port St. Joe | 39 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — |
| St. Joe Beach / Mexico Beach | 129 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — |
| St. George Island | 70 | 1 | 3 | $148,500 | $455,688 | $258,063 |
| TOTAL | 374 | 5 | 8 | — | — | — |
Pace & Projections
Projecting weekly sales forward at 4.33 weeks per month: the Forgotten Coast is on pace for roughly 47–48 residential closings in March. Against 582 active listings, that produces a 12.2-month supply, comfortably in buyer's market territory by most measures.
But here's what that 12.2 months doesn't tell you: inventory and pace are not evenly distributed, and buyers who understand the nuances of each submarket will make better decisions than those looking at a coast-wide average alone. Port St. Joe is tighter. St. George Island is tighter. St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach have the most room. Cape San Blas is a high-value market running at its own pace. Premium properties don't clear quickly, but when the right buyer shows up, they do clear.
On the land side, projected monthly closings of roughly 35 units against 374 active land listings suggests about 10.8 months of land inventory. Cape San Blas and St. George Island are carrying the market there. Buyers looking at land in Port St. Joe and St. Joe Beach have time, and options.
The Long View
March on the Forgotten Coast has a way of clarifying things. The winter rentals have cleared. The spring visitors are arriving. And the people who've been watching, waiting, and thinking about whether the right time is now, start showing up at open houses and scheduling tours. The data from this week reflects that shift. Eleven residential closings and 8 land closings don't happen in a vacuum. They happen because real people decided this was the place and this was the moment.
Locals know the drill. The window between spring and the heat of summer is when things happen here. Not frantic. Not overheated. Just deliberate, purposeful movement, the same way the tide changes on Apalachicola Bay. Steady, reliable, and on its own schedule.
If you're watching this market, keep watching. If you're ready to be in it, let's talk.
Ready to make a move on the Forgotten Coast?
If you're buying, selling, or just starting to figure out what's possible, I'd love to be the local knowledge in your corner. Reach out anytime, and let's start a conversation about what this market means for you.
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